Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (17 on the archive and 40 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 21
Defender wins (German): 36
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 987 | 1116 | 32% | 2025-04-05 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1285 | 22% | 2024-10-10 | Lost |
| 1185 | 1141 | 56% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1244 | 1054 | 75% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1282 | 1193 | 63% | 2024-03-12 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1063 | 53% | 2023-11-17 | Lost |
| 999 | 1210 | 23% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1029 | 776 | 81% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 1136 | 911 | 79% | 2017-12-01 | Won |
| 1210 | 976 | 79% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1038 | 51% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1038 | 47% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 973 | 1061 | 38% | 2017-08-25 | Won |
| 1032 | 1207 | 27% | 2017-03-09 | Lost |
| 930 | 1015 | 38% | 2017-03-02 | Won |
| 1316 | 1254 | 59% | 2016-11-25 | Won |
| 851 | 1031 | 26% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1080.9 vs 1080.5 has a 50.06% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).