Rocket's Red Glare
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 102 (37 on the archive and 65 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 55
Defender wins (German (SS)): 47
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1185 | 989 | 76% | 2025-04-16 | Lost |
| 942 | 942 | 50% | 2024-11-29 | Won |
| 1042 | 1047 | 49% | 2024-07-11 | Won |
| 1042 | 1047 | 49% | 2023-12-02 | Won |
| 1152 | 1137 | 52% | 2023-10-04 | Won |
| 1152 | 1190 | 45% | 2023-10-04 | Won |
| 1015 | 1015 | 50% | 2023-09-16 | Won |
| 1049 | 1049 | 50% | 2022-12-30 | Lost |
| 1431 | 1425 | 51% | 2022-10-28 | Won |
| 968 | 1031 | 41% | 2022-10-20 | Lost |
| 911 | 928 | 48% | 2022-05-02 | Won |
| 918 | 969 | 43% | 2022-05-01 | Won |
| 1141 | 977 | 72% | 2021-10-09 | Won |
| 957 | 1054 | 36% | 2021-10-06 | Lost |
| 1042 | 1029 | 52% | 2021-05-22 | Lost |
| 911 | 1127 | 22% | 2021-05-22 | Lost |
| 1210 | 1032 | 74% | 2021-03-05 | Won |
| 1132 | 1193 | 41% | 2021-01-08 | Lost |
| 1082 | 910 | 73% | 2020-11-14 | Won |
| 1006 | 1077 | 40% | 2020-11-13 | Won |
| 969 | 1008 | 44% | 2020-10-16 | Won |
| 1021 | 974 | 57% | 2020-01-11 | Won |
| 1209 | 1059 | 70% | 2019-06-08 | Won |
| 1116 | 999 | 66% | 2019-05-23 | Won |
| 998 | 1049 | 43% | 2019-03-31 | Lost |
| 966 | 1137 | 27% | 2019-01-19 | Won |
| 1058 | 1054 | 51% | 2018-11-29 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1054 | 51% | 2018-11-16 | Lost |
| 1110 | 991 | 66% | 2018-10-05 | Won |
| 1101 | 1142 | 44% | 2018-07-20 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1219 | 35% | 2018-02-26 | Lost |
| 1001 | 969 | 55% | 2018-02-24 | Won |
| 911 | 973 | 41% | 2017-08-10 | Won |
| 1065 | 976 | 63% | 2017-06-28 | Won |
| 1282 | 1158 | 67% | 2017-03-19 | Won |
| 1002 | 1029 | 46% | 2016-12-17 | Lost |
| 1032 | 877 | 71% | 2016-10-19 | Won |
Attacking (24 wins) average ELOs: 1062.2 vs 1049.6 has a 51.81% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).