The Winter City
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 90 (36 on the archive and 54 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Slovak): 53
Defender wins (Polish): 37
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 968 | 1116 | 30% | 2025-05-01 | Lost |
| 968 | 1035 | 40% | 2025-04-24 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1035 | 48% | 2025-04-24 | Lost |
| 996 | 961 | 55% | 2025-02-06 | Won |
| 1143 | 1131 | 52% | 2025-01-06 | Won |
| 1030 | 1016 | 52% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 1084 | 1084 | 50% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1141 | 922 | 78% | 2023-11-28 | Won |
| 945 | 950 | 49% | 2023-11-18 | Lost |
| 1016 | 987 | 54% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 1008 | 1087 | 39% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 912 | 951 | 44% | 2023-03-18 | Won |
| 904 | 971 | 40% | 2021-07-22 | Won |
| 1054 | 1045 | 51% | 2021-05-24 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1014 | 52% | 2021-04-02 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2021-02-10 | Won |
| 881 | 1004 | 33% | 2021-01-11 | Lost |
| 989 | 1004 | 48% | 2020-03-26 | Won |
| 1082 | 919 | 72% | 2020-03-17 | Won |
| 955 | 1094 | 31% | 2020-02-08 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1149 | 38% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 1153 | 1193 | 44% | 2019-08-17 | Won |
| 1009 | 1219 | 23% | 2019-05-13 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1116 | 38% | 2019-02-07 | Won |
| 1064 | 1210 | 30% | 2018-12-28 | Lost |
| 967 | 1210 | 20% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1068 | 51% | 2017-10-15 | Won |
| 1157 | 1009 | 70% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1157 | 1009 | 70% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1157 | 1009 | 70% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1137 | 911 | 79% | 2017-04-01 | Won |
| 1061 | 1008 | 58% | 2016-11-16 | Won |
| 1210 | 1032 | 74% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1207 | 27% | 2016-04-05 | Won |
| 1032 | 1029 | 50% | 2016-03-12 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1117 | 38% | | Won |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1041.6 vs 1055.1 has a 48.05% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).