Coal in Their Stockings
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 124 (28 on the archive and 96 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 61
Defender wins (German): 63
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1015 | 1015 | 50% | 2024-07-04 | Lost |
| 872 | 918 | 43% | 2024-03-19 | Won |
| 1210 | 1109 | 64% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1154 | 1109 | 56% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1193 | 1016 | 73% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1016 | 1193 | 27% | 2024-02-24 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1082 | 42% | 2023-09-26 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1022 | 66% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1042 | 47% | 2022-02-06 | Won |
| 966 | 1038 | 40% | 2021-05-23 | Won |
| 966 | 1030 | 41% | 2020-05-06 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1032 | 54% | 2020-04-29 | Lost |
| 966 | 1137 | 27% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 910 | 1061 | 30% | 2019-09-02 | Lost |
| 1042 | 1028 | 52% | 2019-07-20 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1071 | 62% | 2019-06-08 | Lost |
| 967 | 1157 | 25% | 2019-05-16 | Lost |
| 944 | 1037 | 37% | 2019-01-19 | Won |
| 1133 | 1106 | 54% | 2018-01-27 | Won |
| 999 | 1210 | 23% | 2017-11-12 | Won |
| 1137 | 1117 | 53% | 2017-07-06 | Won |
| 1040 | 1029 | 52% | 2017-03-11 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1210 | 51% | 2016-10-13 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1026 | 52% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1170 | 1118 | 57% | 2016-06-10 | Won |
| 1095 | 1316 | 22% | 2016-06-01 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1141 | 33% | 2015-03-13 | Won |
| 1210 | 1032 | 74% | 2015-01-16 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1060.1 vs 1085.8 has a 46.32% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).