The Elefant of Surprise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 17
Attacker wins (Russian): 10
Defender wins (German): 7
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 979 | 1086 | 35% | 2019-11-21 | Lost |
| 909 | 1061 | 29% | 2019-03-02 | Won |
| 1061 | 1070 | 49% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1166 | 58% | 2014-08-09 | Won |
| 1043 | 1063 | 47% | 2012-10-05 | Won |
| 1282 | 957 | 87% | 2012-04-21 | Won |
| 986 | 999 | 48% | 2012-01-21 | Won |
| 1207 | 1032 | 73% | 2011-11-05 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1043 | 44% | 2011-10-07 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1010 | 65% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 1316 | 896 | 92% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1028 | 1407 | 10% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1190 | 1316 | 33% | 2011-01-20 | Won |
| 976 | 1210 | 21% | 2010-11-28 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1093 | 49% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1141 | 970 | 73% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1117 | 57% | | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1100.5 vs 1088 has a 51.8% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).