Mayhem in Manila
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 208 (18 on the archive and 190 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 98
Defender wins (Japanese): 110
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2024-06-21 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1054 | 51% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 1054 | 1058 | 49% | 2020-03-21 | Won |
| 789 | 1141 | 12% | 2019-04-13 | Won |
| 831 | 1223 | 9% | 2016-05-23 | Won |
| 966 | 892 | 60% | 2016-02-13 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1125 | 52% | 2011-12-05 | Lost |
| 1040 | 992 | 57% | 2011-10-06 | Won |
| 1033 | 1316 | 16% | 2011-06-06 | Won |
| 1026 | 1014 | 52% | 2008-08-25 | Lost |
| 918 | 983 | 41% | 2003-07-30 | Lost |
| 1029 | 994 | 55% | 2002-04-28 | Won |
| 1115 | 1133 | 47% | 2001-10-07 | Lost |
| 1032 | 930 | 64% | 2000-04-09 | Lost |
| 1210 | 1008 | 76% | 1999-07-31 | Won |
| 901 | 1026 | 33% | 1999-07-09 | Won |
| 1117 | 1011 | 65% | | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1020.3 vs 1058.1 has a 44.58% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).