A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 53 (20 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 22
Defender wins (German): 29
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1055 | 1056 | 50% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 909 | 986 | 39% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 893 | 911 | 47% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 1141 | 919 | 78% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 968 | 925 | 56% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1018 | 786 | 79% | 2023-10-30 | Won |
| 968 | 1087 | 34% | 2023-10-07 | Won |
| 1189 | 888 | 85% | 2022-06-01 | Lost |
| 991 | 1285 | 16% | 2022-03-26 | Lost |
| 1095 | 968 | 68% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1136 | 42% | 2021-11-06 | Lost |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2020-12-12 | Tied |
| 1018 | 1003 | 52% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1264 | 33% | 2020-04-17 | Won |
| 952 | 1141 | 25% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
| 1306 | 1010 | 85% | 2020-03-20 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1046 | 55% | 2020-02-01 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1310 | 24% | 2020-01-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 1080 | 36% | 2019-12-05 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1018 | 63% | 2019-08-02 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1049.5 vs 1040.4 has a 51.31% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).