First Timers
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 126 (46 on the archive and 80 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 69
Defender wins (German): 56
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 971 | 953 | 53% | 2025-10-25 | Won |
| 983 | 974 | 51% | 2025-06-20 | Won |
| 843 | 965 | 33% | 2025-01-16 | Lost |
| 968 | 1117 | 30% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 843 | 965 | 33% | 2023-01-12 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1022 | 59% | 2022-06-22 | Won |
| 1419 | 1047 | 89% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 917 | 866 | 57% | 2022-05-25 | Lost |
| 981 | 1135 | 29% | 2022-05-07 | Won |
| 1012 | 1031 | 47% | 2021-08-25 | Won |
| 1066 | 954 | 66% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1012 | 958 | 58% | 2021-02-13 | Won |
| 1045 | 1163 | 34% | 2020-12-23 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1052 | 60% | 2020-10-30 | Won |
| 1074 | 1151 | 39% | 2020-10-28 | Won |
| 1002 | 1103 | 36% | 2020-08-18 | Lost |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-04-13 | Lost |
| 1033 | 958 | 61% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 1125 | 1047 | 61% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1054 | 1111 | 42% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1078 | 1124 | 43% | 2019-08-28 | Lost |
| 1167 | 824 | 88% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1196 | 1174 | 53% | 2019-01-28 | Won |
| 1229 | 1217 | 52% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 985 | 892 | 63% | 2019-01-12 | Won |
| 1065 | 1003 | 59% | 2019-01-06 | Won |
| 1016 | 879 | 69% | 2018-12-29 | Won |
| 1263 | 1419 | 29% | 2018-12-27 | Lost |
| 876 | 1089 | 23% | 2018-12-24 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1137 | 45% | 2018-12-21 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1109 | 42% | 2018-12-08 | Tied |
| 911 | 1018 | 35% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 940 | 929 | 52% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 1014 | 945 | 60% | 2018-11-18 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1132 | 51% | 2018-11-10 | Lost |
| 1213 | 945 | 82% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 1041 | 1030 | 52% | 2018-10-21 | Lost |
| 1149 | 858 | 84% | 2018-10-20 | Won |
| 1340 | 1090 | 81% | 2018-10-17 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2018-10-12 | Won |
| 1109 | 1041 | 60% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1117 | 1054 | 59% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1136 | 1226 | 37% | 2018-09-10 | Won |
| 806 | 1023 | 22% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 888 | 1005 | 34% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1117 | 46% | | Won |
Attacking (25 wins) average ELOs: 1054.7 vs 1042.7 has a 51.72% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).