Bertoldo the Brave
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 107 (29 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 53
Defender wins (American): 53
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 965 | 843 | 67% | 2024-11-23 | Won |
| 1080 | 954 | 67% | 2024-07-14 | Lost |
| 1117 | 968 | 70% | 2024-06-08 | Lost |
| 991 | 974 | 52% | 2024-01-28 | Lost |
| 1171 | 1172 | 50% | 2023-09-20 | Lost |
| 1050 | 981 | 60% | 2023-06-03 | Tied |
| 949 | 1228 | 17% | 2022-10-25 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1012 | 53% | 2022-07-30 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1082 | 41% | 2022-05-01 | Lost |
| 1035 | 932 | 64% | 2021-02-02 | Won |
| 1103 | 1163 | 41% | 2020-10-19 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1020 | 58% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 973 | 1023 | 43% | 2020-01-18 | Lost |
| 969 | 980 | 48% | 2020-01-10 | Lost |
| 956 | 997 | 44% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 1103 | 878 | 79% | 2019-10-20 | Won |
| 1109 | 1109 | 50% | 2019-08-05 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1018 | 54% | 2019-07-14 | Won |
| 1204 | 828 | 90% | 2019-06-23 | Won |
| 1138 | 1132 | 51% | 2019-01-23 | Won |
| 824 | 1167 | 12% | 2019-01-19 | Lost |
| 1217 | 1229 | 48% | 2019-01-04 | Won |
| 1003 | 1065 | 41% | 2018-12-16 | Lost |
| 879 | 1016 | 31% | 2018-12-15 | Lost |
| 1089 | 876 | 77% | 2018-12-06 | Won |
| 1213 | 945 | 82% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 1149 | 858 | 84% | 2018-10-13 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2018-09-16 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1122 | 34% | 2018-09-03 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1056.8 vs 1027.5 has a 54.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).