Black Day in Hatten
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 153 (55 on the archive and 98 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 72
Defender wins (German): 81
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 971 | 945 | 54% | 2025-09-27 | Won |
| 843 | 965 | 33% | 2024-11-18 | Lost |
| 954 | 1080 | 33% | 2024-06-09 | Lost |
| 959 | 945 | 52% | 2024-02-28 | Lost |
| 968 | 1117 | 30% | 2024-01-20 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1172 | 50% | 2023-08-02 | Lost |
| 981 | 1050 | 40% | 2023-06-10 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1196 | 47% | 2023-01-23 | Lost |
| 934 | 948 | 48% | 2023-01-23 | Won |
| 965 | 843 | 67% | 2023-01-20 | Won |
| 1058 | 1016 | 56% | 2022-11-01 | Won |
| 949 | 1228 | 17% | 2022-09-25 | Lost |
| 866 | 917 | 43% | 2022-08-06 | Won |
| 1346 | 1419 | 40% | 2022-06-10 | Lost |
| 1135 | 968 | 72% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 1164 | 944 | 78% | 2022-03-23 | Won |
| 1082 | 1022 | 59% | 2021-12-05 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1090 | 50% | 2021-12-04 | Won |
| 1012 | 1031 | 47% | 2021-10-16 | Won |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2021-10-13 | Won |
| 1083 | 997 | 62% | 2021-02-18 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1016 | 53% | 2021-02-01 | Won |
| 1045 | 1163 | 34% | 2020-12-02 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1103 | 59% | 2020-09-08 | Lost |
| 923 | 1075 | 29% | 2020-06-07 | Won |
| 924 | 983 | 42% | 2020-05-31 | Won |
| 1217 | 939 | 83% | 2020-04-13 | Won |
| 1109 | 1040 | 60% | 2019-11-03 | Won |
| 868 | 950 | 38% | 2019-10-22 | Won |
| 950 | 868 | 62% | 2019-10-16 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1054 | 72% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1127 | 1078 | 57% | 2019-09-16 | Won |
| 1216 | 961 | 81% | 2019-04-24 | Won |
| 828 | 1204 | 10% | 2019-01-24 | Lost |
| 931 | 926 | 51% | 2018-12-30 | Won |
| 1229 | 1217 | 52% | 2018-12-23 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1137 | 35% | 2018-12-08 | Won |
| 985 | 1014 | 46% | 2018-12-08 | Won |
| 1226 | 1008 | 78% | 2018-11-24 | Lost |
| 1213 | 945 | 82% | 2018-11-10 | Lost |
| 879 | 1107 | 21% | 2018-11-06 | Won |
| 1041 | 1030 | 52% | 2018-11-06 | Won |
| 906 | 1122 | 22% | 2018-11-03 | Lost |
| 876 | 1089 | 23% | 2018-10-28 | Won |
| 876 | 1089 | 23% | 2018-10-28 | Won |
| 876 | 1089 | 23% | 2018-10-28 | Won |
| 1035 | 1167 | 32% | 2018-10-26 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1007 | 66% | 2018-10-20 | Won |
| 1090 | 1340 | 19% | 2018-10-04 | Lost |
| 858 | 1149 | 16% | 2018-09-26 | Lost |
| 846 | 875 | 46% | 2018-09-11 | Lost |
| 969 | 1138 | 27% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1003 | 59% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1144 | 958 | 74% | 2018-08-09 | Won |
| 1020 | 1117 | 36% | | Lost |
Attacking (29 wins) average ELOs: 1027.6 vs 1051.5 has a 46.58% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).