Black Day in Hatten
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 150 (53 on the archive and 97 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 83
Defender wins (German): 67
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 864 | 934 | 40% | 2024-11-18 | Lost |
| 954 | 1080 | 33% | 2024-06-09 | Lost |
| 959 | 971 | 48% | 2024-02-28 | Lost |
| 984 | 1111 | 32% | 2024-01-20 | Lost |
| 981 | 1050 | 40% | 2023-06-10 | Lost |
| 927 | 943 | 48% | 2023-01-23 | Won |
| 1136 | 1187 | 43% | 2023-01-23 | Lost |
| 934 | 864 | 60% | 2023-01-20 | Won |
| 1055 | 1165 | 35% | 2022-11-01 | Won |
| 946 | 1228 | 16% | 2022-09-25 | Lost |
| 866 | 913 | 43% | 2022-08-06 | Won |
| 1116 | 968 | 70% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 1345 | 1412 | 40% | 2022-06-10 | Lost |
| 1153 | 944 | 77% | 2022-03-23 | Won |
| 1084 | 1022 | 59% | 2021-12-05 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2021-12-04 | Won |
| 1039 | 1005 | 55% | 2021-10-16 | Won |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2021-10-13 | Won |
| 1055 | 1094 | 44% | 2021-02-18 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1165 | 32% | 2021-02-01 | Won |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2020-12-02 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1106 | 58% | 2020-09-08 | Lost |
| 925 | 1075 | 30% | 2020-06-07 | Won |
| 924 | 983 | 42% | 2020-05-31 | Won |
| 1219 | 938 | 83% | 2020-04-13 | Won |
| 1090 | 1040 | 57% | 2019-11-03 | Won |
| 868 | 949 | 39% | 2019-10-22 | Won |
| 949 | 868 | 61% | 2019-10-16 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1043 | 64% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1127 | 1058 | 60% | 2019-09-16 | Won |
| 1209 | 962 | 81% | 2019-04-24 | Won |
| 831 | 1252 | 8% | 2019-01-24 | Lost |
| 931 | 926 | 51% | 2018-12-30 | Won |
| 1227 | 1219 | 51% | 2018-12-23 | Lost |
| 986 | 1011 | 46% | 2018-12-08 | Won |
| 1014 | 1141 | 32% | 2018-12-08 | Won |
| 1223 | 1008 | 78% | 2018-11-24 | Lost |
| 1189 | 971 | 78% | 2018-11-10 | Lost |
| 968 | 1087 | 34% | 2018-11-06 | Won |
| 1084 | 950 | 68% | 2018-11-06 | Won |
| 920 | 1110 | 25% | 2018-11-03 | Lost |
| 878 | 1125 | 19% | 2018-10-28 | Won |
| 878 | 1125 | 19% | 2018-10-28 | Won |
| 878 | 1125 | 19% | 2018-10-28 | Won |
| 1035 | 1219 | 26% | 2018-10-26 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1009 | 64% | 2018-10-20 | Won |
| 1109 | 1310 | 24% | 2018-10-04 | Lost |
| 853 | 1157 | 15% | 2018-09-26 | Lost |
| 848 | 862 | 48% | 2018-09-11 | Lost |
| 969 | 1137 | 28% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1018 | 59% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1066 | 893 | 73% | 2018-08-09 | Won |
| 1016 | 1117 | 36% | | Lost |
Attacking (28 wins) average ELOs: 1023.5 vs 1058.1 has a 45.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).