The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 79 (19 on the archive and 60 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (North Korean): 39
Defender wins (American): 40
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1285 | 1210 | 61% | 2024-10-08 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1137 | 46% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1210 | 1032 | 74% | 2023-05-06 | Lost |
| 1193 | 753 | 93% | 2020-06-02 | Won |
| 1093 | 1087 | 51% | 2020-03-12 | Won |
| 1005 | 869 | 69% | 2019-07-13 | Lost |
| 1150 | 969 | 74% | 2019-05-30 | Lost |
| 1219 | 910 | 86% | 2019-01-08 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-11-11 | Won |
| 1158 | 1082 | 61% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1157 | 967 | 75% | 2018-08-22 | Won |
| 952 | 1282 | 13% | 2018-06-30 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1029 | 63% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 1002 | 864 | 69% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 842 | 1219 | 10% | 2018-03-28 | Lost |
| 993 | 1110 | 34% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 957 | 1054 | 36% | 2018-02-24 | Lost |
| 1094 | 900 | 75% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
| 911 | 948 | 45% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1080.9 vs 1026.8 has a 57.72% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).