The Hornet of Cloville
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 18
Attacker wins (American): 8
Defender wins (German): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1044 | 931 | 66% | 2022-03-26 | Won |
| 1310 | 1073 | 80% | 2018-12-30 | Won |
| 879 | 1125 | 20% | 2015-05-10 | Lost |
| 952 | 1125 | 27% | 2014-03-05 | Lost |
| 1199 | 919 | 83% | 2010-01-28 | Won |
| 1010 | 1029 | 47% | 2010-01-24 | Won |
| 1036 | 1014 | 53% | 2007-03-05 | Won |
| 1029 | 965 | 59% | 2007-01-16 | Lost |
| 1025 | 952 | 60% | 2006-09-13 | Won |
| 918 | 1003 | 38% | 2004-12-27 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1086 | 54% | 2004-12-21 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1150 | 56% | 2004-10-24 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1110 | 40% | 2004-01-03 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1090 | 46% | 2000-08-01 | Won |
| 1252 | 940 | 86% | 2000-06-24 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1088 | 40% | 1998-09-20 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1136 | 51% | 1997-04-01 | Won |
| 1117 | 1029 | 62% | | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1074.2 vs 1042.5 has a 54.54% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).