ASL Scenario Archive

Bad Luck

Games with no balance used/recorded: 40

Attacker wins (German): 18

Defender wins (American): 22

Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.

Attacker ELO	Defender ELO	Expected chance to win	Date	Outcome
962	1204	20%	2025-01-08	Lost
941	1040	36%	2024-11-25	Lost
1108	980	68%	2023-02-27	Lost
850	989	31%	2023-02-27	Lost
958	958	50%	2022-11-28	Won
1253	1292	44%	2021-07-25	Lost
773	1029	19%	2020-10-28	Lost
1226	1021	76%	2020-09-08	Won
1167	951	78%	2020-08-28	Won
958	1117	29%	2019-05-08	Lost
1011	1031	47%	2018-03-03	Won
1133	1072	59%	2018-03-03	Won
1009	1216	23%	2018-02-11	Lost
1009	1216	23%	2018-02-11	Lost
1220	1197	53%	2014-01-18	Won
1126	1094	55%	2012-02-25	Won
1110	1103	51%	2011-11-11	Lost
1094	1169	39%	2011-09-15	Won
957	1110	29%	2011-08-01	Lost
1089	901	75%	2010-03-13	Won
1105	1016	63%	2009-08-23	Won
1083	1136	42%	2009-04-14	Lost
1022	1035	48%	2008-01-27	Won
1174	1130	56%	2008-01-27	Lost
1113	1340	21%	2007-09-07	Lost
1117	1419	15%	2007-08-07	Lost
958	994	45%	2006-10-14	Lost
1175	1204	46%	2006-06-23	Lost
1048	958	63%	2006-06-03	Won
985	1204	22%	2005-10-23	Won
831	1204	10%	2003-03-07	Won
1068	914	71%	2002-05-03	Won
1003	1020	48%	2002-01-01	Lost
1109	1100	51%	2001-12-08	Won
713	1151	7%	2001-08-10	Lost
1095	1100	49%	2001-08-08	Lost
1100	1095	51%	2001-08-07	Lost
1117	1007	65%		Won
1090	1117	46%		Lost
1117	996	67%		Won

Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1049.4 vs 1095.8 has a 43.37% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).