ASL Scenario Archive

Bad Luck

Games with no balance used/recorded: 39

Attacker wins (German): 17

Defender wins (American): 22

Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.

Attacker ELO	Defender ELO	Expected chance to win	Date	Outcome
971	1182	23%	2025-01-08	Lost
914	1053	31%	2024-11-25	Lost
1108	1016	63%	2023-02-27	Lost
851	982	32%	2023-02-27	Lost
909	886	53%	2022-11-28	Won
1252	1320	40%	2021-07-25	Lost
767	1029	18%	2020-10-28	Lost
1226	1048	74%	2020-09-08	Won
1194	951	80%	2020-08-28	Won
1027	1143	34%	2019-05-08	Lost
996	941	58%	2018-03-03	Won
1133	1098	55%	2018-03-03	Won
1009	1215	23%	2018-02-11	Lost
1009	1215	23%	2018-02-11	Lost
1220	1197	53%	2014-01-18	Won
1125	1093	55%	2012-02-25	Won
1163	1136	54%	2011-11-11	Lost
1094	940	71%	2011-09-15	Won
975	1163	25%	2011-08-01	Lost
1118	877	80%	2010-03-13	Won
1104	1014	63%	2009-08-23	Won
1044	1136	37%	2009-04-14	Lost
1022	1034	48%	2008-01-27	Won
1115	1130	48%	2008-01-27	Lost
1112	1329	22%	2007-09-07	Lost
1117	1413	15%	2007-08-07	Lost
965	994	46%	2006-10-14	Lost
1168	1182	48%	2006-06-23	Lost
985	1182	24%	2005-10-23	Won
847	1196	12%	2003-03-07	Won
1050	914	69%	2002-05-03	Won
1036	1020	52%	2002-01-01	Lost
1064	1100	45%	2001-12-08	Won
713	1152	7%	2001-08-10	Lost
1096	1100	49%	2001-08-08	Lost
1100	1096	51%	2001-08-07	Lost
1090	1007	62%		Won
1090	1090	50%		Lost
1090	998	63%		Won

Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1047.9 vs 1091.6 has a 43.75% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).