Red Packets
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 262 (48 on the archive and 214 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 110
Defender wins (Russian): 150
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1053 | 995 | 58% | 2024-04-01 | Lost |
| 878 | 880 | 50% | 2024-02-24 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2024-01-08 | Won |
| 1017 | 1219 | 24% | 2021-08-10 | Won |
| 1118 | 1219 | 36% | 2021-08-10 | Won |
| 1007 | 1021 | 48% | 2021-01-17 | Lost |
| 932 | 1173 | 20% | 2020-12-25 | Lost |
| 1173 | 932 | 80% | 2020-12-20 | Won |
| 944 | 1055 | 35% | 2019-05-05 | Won |
| 1162 | 1157 | 51% | 2018-02-09 | Won |
| 911 | 956 | 44% | 2018-01-27 | Won |
| 1002 | 1079 | 39% | 2018-01-27 | Lost |
| 893 | 1219 | 13% | 2017-06-08 | Lost |
| 1049 | 995 | 58% | 2016-12-15 | Lost |
| 1193 | 960 | 79% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
| 998 | 987 | 52% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 1026 | 1038 | 48% | 2015-07-08 | Lost |
| 1038 | 976 | 59% | 2015-04-25 | Won |
| 1010 | 963 | 57% | 2015-01-13 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1219 | 43% | 2014-01-13 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1032 | 50% | 2013-12-22 | Won |
| 983 | 1032 | 43% | 2013-10-19 | Lost |
| 1032 | 983 | 57% | 2013-10-19 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1219 | 24% | 2013-10-18 | Won |
| 900 | 1165 | 18% | 2013-02-07 | Won |
| 901 | 951 | 43% | 2012-09-30 | Lost |
| 901 | 1013 | 34% | 2012-09-30 | Lost |
| 901 | 1013 | 34% | 2012-09-23 | Won |
| 901 | 951 | 43% | 2012-09-23 | Won |
| 1032 | 943 | 63% | 2012-06-15 | Lost |
| 944 | 1094 | 30% | 2012-04-29 | Lost |
| 1032 | 973 | 58% | 2012-03-07 | Lost |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2012-02-27 | Lost |
| 1066 | 917 | 70% | 2012-01-01 | Lost |
| 966 | 892 | 60% | 2011-05-17 | Lost |
| 952 | 952 | 50% | 2010-09-25 | Won |
| 963 | 1039 | 39% | 2010-08-31 | Lost |
| 919 | 1034 | 34% | 2009-06-22 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1027 | 51% | 2009-01-02 | Tied |
| 964 | 957 | 51% | 2008-07-30 | Won |
| 901 | 1113 | 23% | 2008-01-01 | Won |
| 1010 | 943 | 60% | 2006-08-14 | Lost |
| 973 | 1061 | 38% | 2004-11-28 | Won |
| 1032 | 1210 | 26% | 2004-09-16 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1154 | 40% | 2000-01-09 | Won |
| 1029 | 869 | 72% | 1999-10-01 | Lost |
| 1210 | 911 | 85% | 1994-03-02 | Lost |
| 1054 | 984 | 60% | 1992-02-26 | Lost |
Attacking (20 wins) average ELOs: 1009.1 vs 1033.4 has a 46.51% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).